A recent study warns that swapping palm oil for other vegetable oils might not be the solution to environmental issues but could instead lead to more deforestation, higher carbon emissions, and threats to food security.
Study: Pressure on Global Forests: Implications of Rising Vegetable Oils Consumption Under the EAT-Lancet Diet. Image Credit: Photoongraphy / Shutterstock
A threat to food security – Expanding land for alternative oils could displace staple crops like wheat, maize, and rice, potentially affecting global food supplies and pushing prices higher.
In a recent study published in the journal Global Change Biology, researchers estimate the impacts of global food oil demand on deforestation and carbon emissions. The EAT-Lancet diet recommends reducing beef consumption but does not propose viable alternatives for palm oil substitution. Instead of outright replacing palm oil, ensuring sustainable production of all vegetable oils is critical.
Instead of outright replacement, certification schemes and sustainable palm oil production could minimize environmental damage while still meeting global food oil needs. The study highlights that land allocation model estimations are bleak with results projecting a 68% increase in food oil demand over today’s requirements. However, these values increase to 74% under the EAT-Lancet dietary scenario.
Substituting palm oil with other oils did not solve this problem but rather exacerbated it – substitution models estimate land use needs increasing to 385 million hectares, corresponding to 148 million hectares of deforestation. Together, these estimates amount to ~1525 Mt of CO₂ emissions from land use change alone.
Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia and Malaysia, will bear the greatest deforestation risks though significant impacts are also expected in Central Africa and Central America. The study suggests that prioritizing oil palm expansion near existing plantations could reduce deforestation-related emissions by 39-42%.
The present study highlights the global deforestation and GHG emission impacts of human population growth and the unsustainable food-oil requirements of 2050. While certification schemes for sustainable and deforestation-free food supply chains are crucial, ensuring sustainable production of all vegetable oils is critical to preventing biodiversity loss and carbon emissions.
